Dusted off a 2018 anecdote about ridicule, resiliency, and 4th children, that had us all laughing again during Thanksgiving break (see below). Hope you and your clan had a wonderful celebration. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. All the very best, Eric
For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.
Anecdote (Nov 2018): “What the hell Charlie?” said Teddy, “Cover up your arms while we’re eating. Those sores are disgusting.” Charlie shrugged, too accustomed to sibling ridicule to be embarrassed. “That’s what happens when you itch mosquito bites,” said Olivia (15), an authority on basically everything. “And look at your fingernails Charlie, they’re filthy, no wonder you’re infected,” said Jackson (16), always game for gang tackles. “They’re not bug bites and I don’t itch them,” declared Charlie (9), finally pissed. “You itch them in your sleep,” said Teddy (13), stripping his lifelong roommate of a defense. And while none of us believed Teddy heard Charlie itching at night, one look at the damage to his skin and it was hard to draw another conclusion. “Whatever you do Charlie, don’t touch the little one on your face,” said Mara, promising to cut his fingernails after dinner. On Charlie’s upper lip was a new sore. On his arm were another two, a few biggies dotted his legs. “Those mosquitoes really love you Chuck,” I said, and a wave of doubt washed across the table. “What if it’s something else?” asked Olivia. “Strip down Charlie,” ordered Mara. “Seriously?” he asked, nervous. “Jesus!” gasped the table in unison, his back and chest covered in circles. “Ringworm!” declared Mara. “You gotta be kidding me!” shrieked Charlie. But not one of us knew what that meant, not even Mara. Which didn’t stop her from Googling it, confirming the fake diagnosis, and treating it immediately with a fake remedy: tea tree oil. Such is the life of a 4th child, living in a home too busy to pay attention. And in a world preposterously micromanaged, eating away at our resiliency, we’re all better for it. At least that’s what Mara and I tell ourselves. “Tree tea oil? Seriously?” asked the doctor three days later, shaking her head. And Charlie laughed, prescription in hand, on the road to recovery.
Good luck out there,
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Week-in-Review: Mon: Singapore CPI 1.2% (0.9%e). Israel base rate 4.25% as exp. Tech stocks propelled a rise in equities as optimism increased around a rate cut in December. Trump held calls with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as tensions over Taiwan threaten the US trade truce with China. S&P +1.6%. Tue: US cons conf 88.7 (93.3e). Mexico ret sales 3.3% (2.2%e). Australia CPI 3.8% (3.6%e). New Zealand official cash rate 2.25% as exp. Trump announced progress on the Ukraine and Russia peace deal as negotiations continue. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the frontrunner for Trump’s nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair. S&P +0.9%. Wed: US init jobless claims 216k (225k e). South Korea base rate unch 2.50% as exp. Equities continue to rally as rising bets for a rate cut revived markets following a selloff sparked by worries over lofty AI valuations. Two National Guard members on patrol were shot just blocks from the White House. Hong Kong fire sees death toll of at least 55 and the destruction of hundreds of homes, throwing scrutiny on the city’s construction standards. S&P +0.7%. Thu: Eurozone M3 money supply 2.8% as exp. Japan jobless rate 2.6% (2.5%e). Trump announces that he will halt admissions from developing nations following the death of one of the National Guard members shot in DC by an Afghan national. Thanksgiving Day (US markets closed). Fri: Spain CPI 3.0% as exp. Italy CPI 1.1% (1.3%e). Poland CPI 2.4% (2.6%e). Taiwan GDP 8.21% (7.60%e). A 10 hour CME outage that began Thursday night halted futures and options markets was fully restored by the end of trading day Friday. Zelenksy’s chief of staff, Yermak, resigns following a corruption scandal amid peace deal negotiations. S&P +0.5%. Sat: Trump closes Venezuelan air space. Chinese parts supplier takes stake in Russian drone maker.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 +3.7% and VIX -7.08 at +16.35. Nikkei +3.3%, Shanghai +1.4%, Euro Stoxx +2.5%, Bovespa +2.8%, MSCI World +3.1%, MSCI Emerging +2.7%, Bitcoin +8.5%, and Ethereum +11.7%. USD rose +0.1% vs Turkey, and +0.1% vs India. USD fell -1.9% vs Russia, -1.5% vs South Africa, -1.5% vs Australia, -1.3% vs Brazil, -1.2% vs Chile, -1.1% vs Sweden, -1.0% vs Sterling, -1.0% vs Mexico, -0.9% vs Canada, -0.7% vs Euro, -0.4% vs China, -0.2% vs Indonesia, and -0.1% vs Yen. Gold +3.4%, Silver +13.1%, Oil +0.8%, Copper +3.5%, Iron Ore +0.2%, Corn +2.3%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU flat at 1.76%, US -2bps at 2.23%, JP +5bps at 1.69%, and UK +3bps at 2.98%). 2yr Notes -2bps at 3.49% and 10yr Notes -5bps at 4.02%.
Nov Mthly Close: S&P 500 +0.1% and VIX -1.09 at +16.35. Nikkei -4.1%, Shanghai -1.7%, Euro Stoxx +0.8%, Bovespa +6.4%, MSCI World -0.3%, MSCI Emerging -2.2%, Bitcoin -16.9%, and Ethereum -21.2%. USD rose +1.4% vs Yen, +1.0% vs Turkey, +0.8% vs India, and +0.2% vs Indonesia. USD fell -4.1% vs Russia, -1.5% vs Chile, -1.4% vs Mexico, -1.3% vs South Africa, -0.8% vs Brazil, -0.6% vs China, -0.6% vs Sterling, -0.5% vs Euro, -0.5% vs Sweden, -0.2% vs Canada, and -0.1% vs Australia. Gold +5.6%, Silver +17.3%, Oil -3.4%, Copper +2.2%, Iron Ore -1.4%, Corn +0.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +1bp at 1.76%, US -8bps at 2.23%, JP +10bps at 1.69%, and UK +5bps at 2.98%). 2yr Notes -8bps at 3.49% and 10yr Notes -6bps at 4.02%.
2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Colombia +76.2% priced in US dollars (+50.3% priced in pesos), Hungary +66.1% priced in US dollars (+38% in forint), Czech Republic +64.5% in dollars (+41.6% in koruna), Korea +64.3% (+63.6%), Chile +61.4% (+50.9%), Greece +58.9% (+41.7%), Poland +58.5% (+40.6%), Spain +58.3% (+41.2%), Israel +58% (+41.7%), Brazil +53.1% (+32.2%), Austria +52.7% (+36.8%), South Africa +51.3% (+37%), Ireland +47.5% (+31.6%), Mexico +46.4% (+28.4%), Portugal +43.8% (+28.3%), Italy +41.6% (+26.8%), Finland +38.5% (+24%), Germany +33.7% (+19.7%), Belgium +32.4% (+18.1%), Sweden +31.1% (+12.3%), Canada +30.7% (+26.9%), Euro Stoxx 50 +29.8% (+15.8%), Vietnam +29% (+33.5%), Norway +29% (+14.6%), HK +28.6% (+28.9%), Japan +26.7% (+26%), Singapore +26% (+19.4%), UK +25.8% (+18.9%), Taiwan +25.3% (+19.9%), Switzerland +24.7% (+10.6%), France +23.4% (+10.1%), NASDAQ +21%, Netherlands +20.4% (+7.4%), China +19.7% (+16%), MSCI World +18% in US dollars, Indonesia +16.9% (+20.2%), S&P 500 +16.4%, Russell +12.1%, Australia +11.8% (+5.6%), India +6.1% (+10.8%), Malaysia +5.7% (-2.3%), New Zealand +5.6% (+2.9%), UAE +3.5% (+3.5%), Thailand -4.4% (-10.2%), Turkey -7.7% (+10.9%), Philippines -8.9% (-7.8%), Saudi Arabia -11.5% (-11.6%), Argentina -15.1% (+19.5%), Denmark -17.8% (-26.3%).
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.