Inflation

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Custody

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Liquidity

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digital
daily

digital daily: Strides

There are 39,732 steps taken in an average marathon by an average participant. One false step and the other 39,731 don’t matter. No stride is more important than the one before it. It’s a mental journey as much as a physical one. Some will make it look easy – it’s not. The stronger you are, the higher the standard, and the more pressure to perform. You are racing against yourself. Those who can intently focus on each stride, block out the noise, and appreciate the moment rise to new highs. Humility is enduring. Hubris kills. Investors are struggling for an anchor in the new world order – it won’t come in a bright Bloomberg headline. Every thesis must confront the data and the simpler the evaluation, the more honest the revelations. We revert to bitcoin data not as maximalists but because of its richer and longer history. It’s grounding. The resilience of the ecosystem is defined by the patience of its investors. Simple data points emphasize the point and, also, where things may change. Long-term holders are not going anywhere. The share of bitcoin supply held for longer than one year is 66% - a record. This is happening at a critical juncture – only half of the outstanding bitcoin holdings are in a profit position. Patience is always tested. In 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020, this mix of data has signaled a bottoming process. But there is no magic here. The statistics can give you high conviction in the bottoming conclusion. But the statistics are hostage to a historical distribution – they cannot anticipate future behavioral changes. Digital asset markets have entered a period of reflection. Longer term holders will have their patience tested again, and again, and again just like in past cycles. The past says this patience will be rewarded. The future will occur one stride at a time.

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