One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
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Every Single Day

The Art of Investing

The Art of Investing
July 26, 2026
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Finding Harmony in Nature

Finding Harmony in Nature
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

Every Single Day

August 02, 2026

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an Anecdote from 2015 about those things that cannot be taught but must instead be found (see below). I take late summer off from writing for time with family, reading, altitude, solitude. Wishing the same for you. All the very best, Eric

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Anecdote (Jan 2015): “Can we talk Dad?” asked Jackson (13), serious, solemn. I sat on the couch, curious, prepared for anything. “Can I try out for West Coast Stars again?” he asked, voice strained. He tried out for All-Star lacrosse last January. The rejection letter arrived, he went quiet, retreated to his room. So I went and sat on his bed, explained how I moved to the suburbs from NYC at age twelve, where I’d never played sports. And years behind, had suffered the humiliation of the bench, or worse yet, playing the last few minutes when my team was so far ahead or behind that my impact was meaningless. When my parents didn’t bother coming it hurt. When they did come it was harder. I worked my way up from utterly hopeless to second worst. Then third worst. And so on, to eventually play college ball. I’ll never know if the desire to distance myself from that beginning, or the promise of a higher destination drove me most. Maybe both. In the end, it doesn’t matter. Humiliation is one of life’s greatest gifts. Anyhow, for this past year, the topic died, he never mentioned West Coast Stars. “I’ve been killing myself all year Dad,” Jackson continued. He has; waking early, training tirelessly. Now he travels to LA, playing up, swimming in a bigger pond. “But Jackson, your new club team plays West Coast Stars – go beat them this summer,” I said, taunting. Children can be taught nearly anything, just not the most important things; those must be found – passion, drive, hunger. “I’ve trained all year for this, I secretly think about it every single day,” he admitted. “Why?” I asked. “I don’t know, I just want it, to prove to myself I can do it,” he said. So I said yes, holding back an ocean of emotion. As he wiped away a single tear.

 

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: US durable goods orders 0.3% (1.8%e). Trump sees “good chance” of Iran deal after pause in strikes. S&P flat. Tue: US conf board cons conf 90.8 (92.4e). Australia CPI 3.8% (4.0%e). SpaceX sinks 20% below IPO price. Chip stock rout deepens on AI debt jitters, China competition. S&P +0.2%. Wed: US Fed holds rates, with three officials (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissenting, favoring a 25bps hike - upper bound unch 3.75% as exp, lower bound unch 3.50% as exp. Russia unemp rate 2.2% (2.1%e). New US Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries take effect, raising duties to 10%–12.5% to replace expiring Section 122 tariffs. US launches new wave of strikes on Iran as war escalates. S&P -1.5%. Thu: US init jobless claims 197k (200k e), weaker than expected GDP ann QoQ 1.5% (2.0%e). UK Bank of England bank rate unch 3.750% as exp. Eurozone GDP SA QoQ 0.4% (0.2%e). South Korea IP 5.8% (3.0%e). Situational Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund, unwinds trades after heavy losses on AI and software stocks; Citadel buys bulk of Situational Awareness’ AI stock wagers. Mega-cap tech earnings begin with MSFT and Meta guiding for massive AI capex. Musk plans to spend at least $100M to help Republicans in midterms. S&P +1.7%. Fri: US UMich sentiment 55.2 (54.0e). Eurozone CPI 2.9% as exp, Core 2.5% (2.4%e). Bank of Japan leaves short-term policy rate unch at 1.00% in an 8-1 vote (Takata dissents for hike to 1.25%). Amazon surges 15%+ post-earnings as AWS growth offsets broader tech weakness. Trump casts doubt on new Iran negotiations as war drags on. US to impose $20,000 bond for some business, tourist visas. S&P +0.6%. Sat: US-Iran escalation reaches breaking point; US and Israel reportedly preparing severe joint bombing campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure over the weekend. US Embassies across Middle East issue urgent security alerts for American citizens. Spain installs 500m sea barrier at Ceuta border following massive migrant influx that left 67 dead. SpaceX successfully launches 24 more Starlink satellites into orbit on Falcon 9's 89th mission of the year.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.0% and VIX -2.59 at +15.99. Nikkei -0.4%, Shanghai +0.5%, Euro Stoxx +0.7%, Bovespa +2.3%, MSCI World +1.2%, MSCI Emerging +2.3%, Bitcoin -1.9%, and Ethereum +0.4%. USD rose +1.9% vs Russia, +0.4% vs Turkey, and +0.3% vs Indonesia. USD fell -3.9% vs Yen, -2.0% vs Sweden, -1.8% vs Chile, -1.8% vs South Africa, -1.4% vs Euro, -1.2% vs India, -1.2% vs Sterling, -0.8% vs Mexico, -0.6% vs Australia, -0.5% vs Canada, -0.3% vs China, and -0.2% vs Brazil. Gold -0.5%, Silver -1.9%, Oil (WTI) -5.2%, Oil (Brent) -4.1%, NatGas (US) -4.9%, NatGas (EU) -7.2%, Power (EU) -1.8%, Copper +1.7%, Iron Ore -4.5%, Corn -4.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -5bps at 2.03%, US +4bps at 2.28%, JP -1bp at 1.99%, and UK -2bps at 3.23%). 2yr Notes -4bps at 4.29% and 10yr Notes +6bps at 4.74%.

 

July Monthly Close: S&P 500 -0.1% and VIX -0.46 at +15.99. Nikkei -8.1%, Shanghai -6.4%, Euro Stoxx +1.2%, Bovespa +3.5%, MSCI World +0.5%, MSCI Emerging -3.3%, Bitcoin +7.4%, and Ethereum +18.4%. USD rose +1.8% vs Turkey, +1.1% vs Russia, +0.9% vs Chile, +0.9% vs South Africa, +0.8% vs India, and +0.7% vs Indonesia. USD fell -3.2% vs Yen, -1.7% vs Sweden, -1.7% vs Brazil, -1.6% vs Sterling, -1.4% vs Australia, -1.2% vs Canada, -0.9% vs Euro, -0.8% vs Mexico, and -0.5% vs China. Gold +0.2%, Silver -3.6%, Oil (WTI) +22.2%, Oil (Brent) +20.4%, NatGas (US) -14.0%, NatGas (EU) +35.3%, Power (EU) +24.5%, Copper +3.4%, Iron Ore -4.8%, Corn +6.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +19bps at 2.03%, US +5bps at 2.28%, JP -2bps at 1.99%, and UK +11bps at 3.23%). 2yr Notes +12bps at 4.29% and 10yr Notes +27bps at 4.74%.

 

Year-to-Date Close: S&P 500 +9.4% and VIX +1.04 at +15.99. Nikkei +27.9%, Shanghai -3.4%, Euro Stoxx +9.6%, Bovespa +10.5%, MSCI World +9.4%, MSCI Emerging +18.6%, Bitcoin -27.9%, and Ethereum -37.0%. USD rose +10.6% vs Turkey, +7.8% vs Indonesia, +6.1% vs India, +3.5% vs Sweden, +3.4% vs Chile, +2.2% vs Canada, +1.9% vs Euro, +0.8% vs Russia, and +0.4% vs Yen. USD fell -7.3% vs Brazil, -4.9% vs Australia, -3.7% vs Mexico, -3.4% vs China, -0.2% vs South Africa, and -0.1% vs Sterling. Gold -8.7%, Silver -20.0%, Oil (WTI) +48.5%, Oil (Brent) +46.1%, NatGas (US) -26.1%, NatGas (EU) +118.5%, Power (EU) +67.0%, Copper +10.7%, Iron Ore -12.5%, Corn +0.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +29bps at 2.03%, US +4bps at 2.28%, JP +21bps at 1.99%, and UK +29bps at 3.23%). 2yr Notes +82bps at 4.29% and 10yr Notes +57bps at 4.74%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +56.7% priced in US dollars (+56.5% priced in won), Taiwan +44.8% priced in US dollars (+48.9% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +39.1% priced in US dollars (+15.7% priced in pesos), Hungary +36.9% in dollars (+32.1% in forint), Norway +30.2% (+22.5%), Japan +25.4% (+27.9%), Singapore +21.5% (+21.1%), Thailand +21.1% (+28.9%), Poland +20.7% (+25.7%), Brazil +19.3% (+10.5%), Greece +18.9% (+21.2%), Austria +18.8% (+21.2%), Russell 2000 +18.1%, Israel +16% (+11.1%), Italy +13.7% (+16.1%), Netherlands +13.4% (+15.5%), Portugal +12.3% (+14.5%), Spain +12.2% (+14.3%), Belgium +9.9% (+12%), UK +9.5% (+9.4%), MSCI World +9.4% priced in US dollars, S&P 500 +9.4%, NASDAQ +9.2%, Canada +8.6% (+11.1%), Sweden +8.6% (+12.6%), Australia +8.5% (+3%), Mexico +8.2% (+4.1%), Turkey +8% (+19.5%), Euro Stoxx 50 +7.7% (+9.8%), Switzerland +5.8% (+8.1%), Argentina +5.4% (+7.9%), Finland +4.2% (+6.3%), New Zealand +3.3% (+1.1%), Germany +2.5% (+4.7%), France +2.5% (+4.4%), Chile +2% (+5.1%), Malaysia +2% (+2.7%), Ireland +1.4% (+3.3%), Saudi Arabia +0.8% (+0.9%), HK +0.2% (+1%), China -0.1% (-3.4%), UAE -0.8% (-0.8%), Philippines -0.9% (+3%), Czech Republic -1.3% (+0.7%), Denmark -2.7% (-0.6%), Vietnam -2.7% (-2.7%), South Africa -4.3% (-4.4%), India -12.1% (-6.7%), Indonesia -33.1% (-27.9%)

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

 

 

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