One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
The Paradox of Exposing Our Children to Risk

Never Seen a Boom Like This

Never Seen a Boom Like This
October 04, 2026
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Watching, Listening, Walking

Watching, Listening, Walking
September 27, 2026
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

The Paradox of Exposing Our Children to Risk

October 11, 2026

Teddy and Liv came home for long-weekend, friends in tow, filling the house. Dusted off an Anecdote from 2022 about their time together as EMTs, back in high school, and the paradox of exposing our children to risk. Back next week with full wknd notes. All the very best, Eric

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Anecdote (Dec 4, 2022): “It was a hoarder house, the TV blaring, a difficult scene, interesting,” said Teddy. “She was on the floor in the back room, surrounded by junk, with very little space for us to maneuver,” continued my son, seventeen, a senior. “I was the lead EMT on the call. It was my first time in charge,” he said, calm. “Everyone has a role. I had one person start chest compressions, and had Liv prepare the AED,” said Teddy, reminding me that his older sister was on the 911 call too. She had already seen a lot in her years as an EMT. “I cleared her airway and started bagging, forcing air into her lungs with the device.” Parental instincts to protect children make it hard to expose them in real ways. But this is how we grow stronger. It is difficult to know when to begin. Liv became an EMT first. Teddy followed. Mara and I supported it. “You tend to remember strange little details from traumatic scenes, and there was this Verizon commercial blasting on the TV as I kneeled over her, looking directly into her eyes, which stayed open, she wasn’t blinking.” Mara and I knew they’d experience things that few would in their lifetimes, and we hoped their support network would help them process whatever fate threw their way. The reward seemed to outweigh the risk. But of course, we couldn’t know for sure – that is the essence of real exposure. “We got back to the ambulance, and it felt strange. She was my first code. We had been taught that people die, get used to it. We’re well trained. And I got great feedback on my scene management. I learned you can do all the right things but still lose,” said Teddy. “Liv was helpful. She felt the same way after her first code, had the same realization. Knowing I wasn’t alone, and with people who can appreciate what I had gone through was helpful. But in the end, I had to process it myself. Come to terms,” he said. “Now I don’t think about it much, unless I’m having a conversation like this one,” said Teddy, looking directly at me. “Although, whenever I hear a Verizon commercial, I see her eyes.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: Bessent says US can “very quickly” bend the US debt curve, as ten-year yields hit their highest levels since 2002. Meta, Microsoft are working to wean staff off Claude. Oil fell as Saudi Arabia cut crude prices for Asian buyers, a sign that physical supplies are becoming more readily available as Middle Eastern exports recover. S&P +0.7%. Tue: US Trade Balance -$105.6B (-$102.1B). SpaceX in talks to raise $40B in debt to buy Nvidia chips. Google, Constellation Energy strike deal for nuclear power. Paramount closes Warner merger; combined company renamed Skydance. S&P +0.6%. Wed: Fed minutes show hawkish unity behind September rate hike, with most participants assessing that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. US ten-year yields hit fresh 24-year highs before paring gains after a solid $39B auction. S&P -0.2%. Thu: US init jobless claims 197k (200k e). Starbucks has explored a takeover of Chipotle. Tech led losses in S&P on reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue is $50B, lower than the $70B previously reported. Trump says US won’t attack Iran before midterm elections. S&P -0.5%. Fri: US UMich sent 46.3 (47.6e). Panama hit by 7.7 magnitude earthquake. Trump says Putin to supply global markets with diesel ahead of US midterms. CFTC proposed defining financial swaps to include event contracts based on sports, politics, culture, and weather-related wagers. S&P +0.6%.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +1.2% and VIX -0.47 at +14.84. Nikkei +1.1%, Shanghai -0.7%, Euro Stoxx +0.03%, Bovespa +8.8%, MSCI World +0.7%, MSCI Emerging -0.01%, Bitcoin -2.1%, and Ethereum -7.0%. USD rose +1.4% vs Mexico, +1.2% vs Russia, +0.5% vs Euro, +0.4% vs India, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs Yen, +0.1% vs Sterling, flat vs Indonesia, and flat vs Canada. USD fell -4.3% vs Brazil, -1.2% vs Chile, -0.9% vs South Africa, -0.4% vs Australia, -0.3% vs Sweden, and -0.2% vs China. Gold +1.3%, Silver +1.0%, Oil (WTI) +0.8%, Oil (Brent) +2.4%, NatGas (US) +6.1%, NatGas (EU) +8.9%, Power (EU) +0.9%, Copper +2.2%, Iron Ore -2.5%, Corn -3.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +4bps at 2.23%, US -1bp at 2.35%, JP -6bps at 2.14%, and UK +2bps at 3.46%). 2yr Notes -4bps at 4.79% and 10yr Notes -3bps at 5.24%.

Manufacturing PMI (high-to-low): Sweden 58.1/56.3, Taiwan 56.7/54.7, Netherlands 55.6/53.8, Switzerland 55.3/57.1, India 55.1/52.8, Austria 54.9/54.4, United States 54.5/54.6, Japan 54.1/54.9, Greece 54/54.4, Germany 53.9/54.3, South Korea 53.9/52.3, Czech Republic 53.5/54.1, Hungary 53.2/51.5, Indonesia 52.4/49.8, China 52.1/51.5, UK 51.9/51.7, Vietnam 51.9/53.3, Singapore 51.7/51.5, Canada 51.5/53, Spain 51/49.5, France 50.6/51.1, Italy 50.4/49.6, Mexico 50.3/49.8, Russia 49.8/48.8, Hong Kong 49.2/49.5, Poland 49/48.3, South Africa 49/50.5, Turkey 47.9/48.1. Services PMI: US 58.8/56.5, Spain 58.3/57.8, Sweden 57.4/56, India 55.2/54.1, Ireland 54.1/55.4, Germany 52.9/49.7, UK 52.1/52.5, Australia 51.9/53.2, Italy 51.7/55.2, China 51.6/51.4, Russia 51.3/51.3, Japan 51.3/52.5, France 51.2/48, Brazil 49.2/50.5.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +68.7% priced in US dollars (+57.2% priced in won), Taiwan +67.5% priced in US dollars (+70.3% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +44.1% priced in US dollars (+22.4% in pesos), Brazil +42.7% in dollars (+29.8% in reais), Japan +35.4% (+37.1%), Norway +30.5% (+23.8%), Hungary +28.4% (+27.6%), Poland +23.3% (+34.7%), NASDAQ +17.7%, Thailand +17.3% (+25.2%), Austria +16.9% (+22.9%), Singapore +16.7% (+16.3%), Greece +15.1% (+20.7%), S&P 500 +14.1%, Netherlands +13.4% (+18.9%), Russell 2000 +13.1%, Portugal +12.1% (+17.5%), MSCI World +12% priced in US dollars, Israel +11.5% (+7.2%), Canada +8.1% (+12.5%), Italy +5.4% (+10.7%), Spain +4.9% (+10%), Finland +4.6% (+9.9%), Australia +4.6% (+0%), UK +4.5% (+6.2%), Sweden +3.9% (+13%), Belgium +2.4% (+7.4%), Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6% (+6.6%), Ireland +1.2% (+6.1%), China +0.3% (-3.9%), Mexico +0.3% (+2.7%), Switzerland -1% (+3.9%), New Zealand -1.1% (+1.5%), Vietnam -1.2% (-2.8%), Saudi Arabia -1.2% (-1.1%), UAE -2% (-2%), Germany -2.5% (+2.4%), Chile -3% (+5.3%), Malaysia -4.9% (-4.3%), Turkey -5.2% (+8.9%), HK -6.3% (-5.5%), South Africa -6.5% (-6.7%), France -8.7% (-4.2%), Czech Republic -9.3% (-4.1%), Denmark -10.2% (-5.6%), Argentina -11.1% (-7.3%), Philippines -11.8% (-5.8%), India -19.9% (-13.8%), Indonesia -34.2% (-29.5%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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