One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
The Clank of Ice Axes

Big Fat Tails

Big Fat Tails
August 08, 2026
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Every Single Day

Every Single Day
August 02, 2026
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

The Clank of Ice Axes

August 15, 2026

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an Anecdote from April 2012 about strong friendship, mountain climbing, and risk management (see below). I take late summer off from writing for time with family, reading, altitude, solitude. Wishing the same for you. All the very best, Eric

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Anecdote (April 2012): The clank of ice axes shattered our silence. I spun, to see my pack tumble. Twirl. And come to rest, far below. A blue dot, amongst granite boulders. Vincent stood motionless, looking out across the vast glacier, to distant peaks, and said, “You never let go your pack on a ledge, you know this.” And I got hot, knowing then, he’d kicked it. “You’re very tired, me too, which is why you will go get it alone, but you’re also very lucky it is only 40 meters, and not lost, we need that equipment,” he told me. Our friendship was simple, strong. We climbed together, trained nearly every day. I taught him basic English; he failed to teach me mountain French. When clients arrived, I was his Sherpa, helping others attain goals. Tethered to men, confronting fear, stress, obstacles. Theirs. Mine too. So it went. For a year. Vincent was 7th generation high-altitude French mountain guide. And filled our climbs with tales, into which were woven threads of wisdom, passed from father to son. Unsurprisingly, most lessons concerned risk management. Of course, life’s greatest risks emanate from within. So naturally, training was inwardly directed; developing physical stamina, core strength, balance, discipline, humility, mental toughness. We never really focused on bagging peaks. But rather, on perfecting the journey. And on each one, Vincent created an unexpected challenge, when I was least prepared, most vulnerable, mentally weakened. You see, in crisis, without mental toughness, the best rehearsed exit plans crumble. Anyhow, I descended that cliff. Retrieved my pack. Returned to the ledge, still a little hot, and told Vincent that indeed, I felt real f’in lucky it had been only 40 meters. “You will not always get so lucky,” he replied, his cracked, blistered lips unable to hide a smile.

Good luck out there,

 

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: Singapore GDP 5.9% (5.8%e). Nvidia to mobilize over $500B with 6 financial firms for AI compute. Trump makes sweeping new demands on Iran as deal hopes dim. Yen weakens, wiping out half of its rally from recent interventions by Japan and the US to boost the currency. S&P -0.1%. Tue: US existing home sales 4.06m (4.05m e). Australia RBA cash rate target unch 4.35% as exp. South Korea unemp rate SA 2.8% (2.7%e). Australia Central Bank Chief Bullock adopted hawkish tone after holding rates unchanged. Trump weighs call for capital gains tax cuts as midterm boost. S&P -0.3%. Wed: US CPI 3.4% as exp, Core 2.5% as exp. India CPI 4.45% (4.40%e). Japan PPI 7.2% (7.4%e). Iran takes more robust military stance with US talks frozen. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt to leave role. Korean stocks rise 23% in 10 days as chip rally regains steam. S&P +0.3%. Thu: US init jobless claims 209k (202k e), cont claims 1777k (1794k e), PPI final demand MoM 0.0% (0.2%e). UK GDP 1.2% (1.1%e). US readies unprecedented “economic isolation” plan for Iran. Trump imposes tariffs of as much as 100% on imported drones and their components to reduce US reliance on foreign suppliers, deepening US-China tech decoupling. S&P +0.7%. Fri: US UMich sent 51.0 (55.0e), ret sales advance MoM -0.6% (0.1%e). Eurozone GDP SA 1.0% as exp. China money supply M2 7.7% (7.9%e). Hong Kong GDP 4.3% as exp. Taiwan GDP 12.93% (12.90%e). US, Canada still see sticking points as new trade deadline nears next week. Stripe, Advent in talks to buy PayPal. Anthropic revenue surges to over $11.5B in second quarter. S&P -0.2%.

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 +0.4% and VIX -0.65 at +14.25. Nikkei +4.7%, Shanghai -0.3%, Euro Stoxx -0.4%, Bovespa -3.2%, MSCI World +0.4%, MSCI Emerging +2.6%, Bitcoin -3.1%, and Ethereum -2.1%. USD rose +2.8% vs Brazil, +2.1% vs Russia, +1.0% vs Yen, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs South Africa, +0.3% vs Sweden, +0.2% vs India, and +0.2% vs Chile. USD fell -0.7% vs Mexico, -0.5% vs Canada, -0.4% vs Indonesia, -0.3% vs Sterling, -0.2% vs Australia, -0.1% vs Euro, and flat vs China. Gold +0.9%, Silver +2.5%, Oil (WTI) +5.4%, Oil (Brent) +5.9%, NatGas (US) +2.7%, NatGas (EU) +10.6%, Power (EU) +2.5%, Copper +0.4%, Iron Ore -0.8%, Corn +4.6%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +8bps at 2.05%, US +3bps at 2.28%, JP +8bps at 2.05%, and UK +10bps at 3.27%). 2yr Notes -2bps at 4.17% and 10yr Notes +5bps at 4.69%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +68.5% priced in US dollars (+65.6% priced in won), Taiwan +55.1% priced in US dollars (+58.2% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +43% priced in US dollars (+18.6% in pesos), Hungary +41.8% in dollars (+35.6% in forint), Norway +34.6% (+26.1%), Japan +33.9% (+36.5%), Poland +26.1% (+30.7%), Austria +24.4% (+26.4%), Singapore +24.3% (+23.6%), Russell 2000 +23.6%, Greece +22% (+23.7%), Thailand +21% (+27.7%), Israel +20% (+11.2%), Italy +17.3% (+19.2%), Netherlands +15.9% (+17.5%), NASDAQ +15%, Spain +14.8% (+16.5%), Portugal +14.8% (+16.4%), Canada +14.6% (+15.8%), S&P 500 +13.7%, MSCI World +13.5% in US dollars, Turkey +12.9% (+25.8%), Euro Stoxx 50 +11.3% (+12.9%), Australia +11.1% (+4.6%), Belgium +10% (+11.5%), Sweden +9.7% (+13.6%), UK +8.9% (+8.2%), Brazil +8.6% (+3.6%), Ireland +7.9% (+9.4%), Finland +7.8% (+9.5%), Germany +6.3% (+8%), Mexico +5.9% (+0.1%), Switzerland +5.6% (+8.5%), New Zealand +4.7% (+2.3%), France +4.5% (+6%), Chile +3.8% (+5.4%), Saudi Arabia +3.1% (+3.2%), China +2.6% (-1%), Czech Republic +2.2% (+3.9%), Malaysia +2.1% (+2.8%), South Africa +0.6% (-1.6%), UAE +0.5% (+0.5%), Philippines -0.5% (+4%), Denmark -0.9% (+0.8%), Vietnam -2.5% (-3.1%), HK -2.8% (-2%), Argentina -5.7% (-3.4%), India -12.3% (-6.7%), Indonesia -30.6% (-26%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

 

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