One River Asset Management, LLC | Terms of Use

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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
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The Art of Investing

Every Single Day

Every Single Day
August 02, 2026
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Finding Harmony in Nature

Finding Harmony in Nature
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

The Art of Investing

July 26, 2026

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an Anecdote from 2015 about reinvention, and the art of investing (see below). I take late summer off from writing for time with family, reading, altitude, solitude. Wishing the same for you. All the very best, Eric

 

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

 

Anecdote (Oct 2015): “Experience is helpful, and often an impediment,” he said, just back from Silicon Valley, electrified. “We have very few good businesses in our industry. But those guys out there, they have good businesses.” Uber, Google, Facebook, Palantir; turning grey matter into green paper. He started his firm decades ago, when the entrenched hedge funds looked at investing from the top down. He looked at it from the bottom up, trading equities better than anyone; perhaps ever. “Most people get tired, the world passes them by, leaves them behind. The Valley is filled with 28-year-olds who look at things so differently. They see the future, make it happen.” He’s stacked his management team with innovators. Aspiring to attract the world’s most creative people. Hoping that his biggest problem becomes having to turn them away because he’s run out of room. We sat in his office. Swimming in art. Each work containing its unique history, inspiration, interpretations. I asked if he sees himself as an artist. “Investing is an art,” he answered. “But in the future, it will become less so. I see it dominated by systems.” Which is where he’s investing his profits. Exploring. Experimenting in new mediums. “Not all of what we’re working on will succeed, but you have to try – big data, new strategies – you need to continually reinvent yourself, disrupt things.” But while a world dominated by algorithmic investment strategies makes sense, perhaps even seems inevitable, can art become science? Can inspiration be systematized? Our conversation paused. My gaze settled upon an artwork that at one time broke through a boundary, defined a new edge, opening up new possibilities. Something floating in formaldehyde.

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

 

Week-in-Review: Mon: US leading index -0.2% (-0.1%e). Canada CPI 2.8% (2.9%e). Paramount-Warner deal at risk of costly delays after a federal judge granted a request to pause the takeover for two weeks, saying it “likely” violates antitrust law. Saudi-led coalition in Yemen vows to protect ships from Houthis (an Iran-backed Yemeni group that vowed to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia). S&P -0.5%. Tue: Mexico ret sales 1.6% (3.1%e). Hungary CB rate decision 5.75% as exp. TSMC to hike chip prices by up to 10% in 2027, Nikkei says. Yen slides past 163 mark to fresh four-decade low against dollar. Novo Nordisk sues Eli Lilly in US over misleading obesity drug ads. US-Iran strikes extend to tenth consecutive day as mediators sought to revive a truce. S&P +0.8%. Wed: UK CPI 2.6% (2.7%e), Core 2.6% (2.5%e). South Africa CPI 5.0% (4.7%e). Indonesia BI-Rate 5.75% (6.00%e). South Korea 3.7% (3.5%e). Australia unemp rate 4.4% as exp. Trump said generic drug manufacturers must move production to the US or face a 100% import duty from August 2028. BOJ is said to be open to faster rate hike pace due to the yen’s continued weakness and upside inflation risks. S&P flat. Thu: US init jobless claims 187k (210k e). Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate unch 2.40% as exp, deposit facility rate unch 2.25% as exp, marginal lending facility 2.65% as exp. South Africa SARB interest rate 7.00% (7.25%e). Japan Natl CPI 1.7% as exp. Alphabet falls as $205B spending plan fuels AI cost fear. US signs Saudi nuclear-sharing deal as enrichment fears rise. Trump threatens to escalate strikes on Iran as Houthis join war. S&P -1.0%. Fri: US new home sales 628k (607k e). Mexico unemp rate NSA 2.90% (2.80%e). Russia Key Rate 14.00% (14.25%e). SK Group Chairman Chey Tae Won said Anthropic asked for supplies to make its own chips. Alphabet’s Waymo is exploring options to exit its robotaxi partnership with Uber. US measles infections surpass 2025 total to hit 35-year high. S&P -0.1%. Sat: SpaceX completes successful flight of its Starship (deploys 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites), Saudis attack Houthi targets in Yemen. 

 

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -0.6% and VIX -0.19 at +18.58. Nikkei +0.7%, Shanghai +1.3%, Euro Stoxx +0.5%, Bovespa +0.2%, MSCI World -0.4%, MSCI Emerging +0.5%, Bitcoin +0.1%, and Ethereum +1.0%. USD rose +1.9% vs South Africa, +1.2% vs Chile, +1.0% vs Sterling, +0.9% vs Yen, +0.9% vs Sweden, +0.6% vs Euro, +0.5% vs Canada, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs India, +0.3% vs Indonesia, and +0.1% vs Australia. USD fell -0.6% vs Brazil, -0.3% vs Mexico, -0.2% vs Russia, and -0.1% vs China. Gold +1.3%, Silver +4.6%, Oil (WTI) +9.2%, Oil (Brent) +9.9%, NatGas (US) -1.4%, NatGas (EU) +10.8%, Power (EU) +0.4%, Copper +1.5%, Iron Ore -2.8%, Corn +4.3%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +2bps at 2.08%, US flat at 2.25%, JP +10bps at 2.00%, and UK +3bps at 3.25%). 2yr Notes +15bps at 4.33% and 10yr Notes +13bps at 4.68%.

 

YTD Equity Index Returns: Korea +56.6% priced in US dollars (+58.8% priced in won), Taiwan +46.3% priced in US dollars (+50.7% priced in Taiwan dollars), Hungary +33.7% priced in US dollars (+29.2% in forint), Colombia +29% in dollars (+10% in pesos), Norway +28.3% (+21.9%), Japan +22.5% (+28.4%), Thailand +21.8% (+30.5%), Singapore +19.9% (+20.3%), Israel +19% (+13.9%), Russell 2000 +18.1%, Austria +17.3% (+21.2%), Brazil +16.9% (+8%), Poland +16% (+22.5%), Greece +14% (+17.5%), Portugal +12.5% (+16%), Turkey +12.3% (+23.8%), Italy +11.6% (+15.3%), Netherlands +11.1% (+14.6%), Spain +9.7% (+13.2%), Belgium +9.5% (+12.9%), Canada +8.6% (+11.5%), S&P 500 +8.3%, MSCI World +8.1% in US dollars, NASDAQ +7.5%, UK +7.1% (+8.1%), Mexico +6.5% (+3.2%), Australia +5.5% (+0.7%), Euro Stoxx 50 +5.1% (+8.5%), Sweden +5.1% (+11%), Argentina +4.7% (+7.6%), Switzerland +4.5% (+8%), Finland +3.1% (+6.5%), Saudi Arabia +2.9% (+3%), New Zealand +2.4% (+1.7%), Ireland +0.4% (+3.6%), Malaysia +0.4% (+1.2%), France -0.4% (+2.7%), Chile -0.5% (+4.5%), Germany -0.8% (+2.5%), China -0.8% (-3.9%), Philippines -1.1% (+3.8%), UAE -1.6% (-1.6%), Denmark -3.1% (+0.3%), HK -3.3% (-2.6%), Czech Republic -4% (-1.2%), Vietnam -5.6% (-5.5%), South Africa -7.4% (-6.1%), India -15.1% (-9%), Indonesia -33.2% (-28.3%).

 

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

 

 

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