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wknd
notes

Wknd Notes
White Papers
Prudence, Justice, Temperance, Fortitude, Courage, Industry, Concordia, Patriotism.

Markets Are Getting Gappy

Markets Are Getting Gappy
October 31, 2026
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At the end, everything converges to financial flows

At the end, everything converges to financial flows
October 17, 2026
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The Paradox of Exposing Our Children to Risk

The Paradox of Exposing Our Children to Risk
October 11, 2026
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wknd
notes

Each Sunday morning for over a decade, One River’s CIO, Eric Peters, has published “Wknd Notes.” It is an unorthodox take on markets, politics, and policy that’s widely read across our industry and within global policy/political circles. Eric has written for as long as he has traded and the discipline is part of his investment process. Drawing on wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary research, historical study, and discussions with interesting characters throughout the world, Eric collects those things he finds most thought-provoking each week and distills them into a concise letter. At times the ideas and views are consistent with his own, but just as often, they challenge his positions and it is this openness to opposing views that helps him maintain a flexible mind in the search for emerging opportunities and risks. His writing is a reflection of how he thinks, and as such it is as focused on identifying the right questions to ask as it is on seeking answers. The publication of this work is Eric’s way of exchanging ideas/information and developing dialogue with a network grown over his thirty-one-year career.

Prudence, Justice, Temperance, Fortitude, Courage, Industry, Concordia, Patriotism.

October 24, 2026

“Okay all you power nerds,” said Charlie’s teacher, junior year, high school. “If you could shoot a basketball, let’s face it, you wouldn’t be in AP Physics.” They all laughed. “So, you’re going to separate into groups. Each will get a small cannon and a steel ball. You’ll need to run the calculations to determine how to shoot the ball in an arch and land it in a little basket.” They got excited, everyone loves experiential learning. “If you land it, you get 100%. If you miss, you get 0%. But the cannons aren’t perfectly calibrated. So, it’s possible that you’ll get the equation exactly right but still get a zero. And well, that’s how life works.”

Overall: “Prudence.” I had zipped down to DC for meetings and wandered into the Library of Congress. The entrance is magnificent. In each of the room’s four corners, two women in white, painted on fields of solid red, each one unique. “Justice.” Above each woman in her flowing robes is inscribed a single word. “Temperance.” I recognized the first few from Greek and Roman philosophy, Plato, Aristotle, Marcus Aurelius’s Meditations. “Fortitude.” They are the four classical virtues: prudence, justice, temperance, fortitude. A well-lived life is built upon the exercise of these virtues. Another fascinating week was unfolding across our shrinking little planet, the pace of change staggering. Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia, reminding the advanced world of the rising asymmetric risks that rogue states and militias pose in an age of drones and AI. In time, the former will neutralize the latter. There will be hell to pay. Oil prices hit six-month highs. Credit spreads continued upward, nearing one-year highs. AI stocks sank further, while the race for supremacy powered ahead. The S&P 500 hovered a few percent below its all-time high. As I walked the perimeter of the library’s great room, it became clear that its painter included additional virtues. “Courage.” I asked Claude to explain the difference between fortitude and courage. The Greeks said andreia, courage in the active sense; the Romans said fortitudo, which leans toward endurance. Both essential. “Industry.” America is an experiment, engineered as a business, which produces vast wealth, strength, power; which we generally put to good use. “Concordia.” In the painting, the woman in white holds an olive branch in one hand, a cornucopia in the other, her symbols of peace and plenty, the Roman goddess of harmony. “Patriotism.” The United States of America cannot sustain this experiment without it. And in this age of technological acceleration and overwhelming change, where we will soon confront what it really means to be human, may we be guided by the virtues that have lifted us so high: Prudence, Justice, Temperance, Fortitude, Courage, Industry, Concordia, Patriotism.

For Week-in-Review and Weekly & Year-to-Date market data, scroll to the bottom.

Lone Star: “Two years ago, none of us in finance knew what this AI thing was,” said Lone Star, one of the leading US university endowment CIOs. “It rhymed with the internet. Maybe a super huge deal. But nobody knew how it worked, including the people building it. They still say - I don’t really know how the LLM came up with that.” Nasdaq 100 had its worst week since April 2025 the week before last, and chips led again on Thursday. “What we did know was that it needed power, so everyone aggregated power. And it needed GPUs, so everyone aggregated GPUs. And now we’re back to something us finance guys understand completely. Financing.”

Lone Star II: “CoreWeave bond yields at 15%,” said Lone Star. “That math doesn’t work. Their debt went from $2bln to $4bln, $8bln, $20bln, $40bln. At some point you think, really? Jensen says he’s standing behind it. That’s great. Last time I heard that was 2007.” Nvidia market cap is $5trln, so a Jensen guarantee is not nothing. “But the AI trade bounced for just a day. Then the market called it. Spreads came in a touch, went back out, then ended up wider still.” The credit market has found its voice. “If you want to borrow below 15%, you’ll have to prove yourself.”

Lone Star III: “Jensen says $4-5trln of compute spend in 2030 is like falling off a log,” said Lone Star. “It’s $1trln today.” Jensen is talking his book, and the equity market is banking on it now. “The hyper-scalers have no cash flow left, so demand from here gets financed. $1.5trln next year, $2.25trln in 2028, $3.25trln, $4.5trln in 2030.” Over $11trln in total. “Will credit investors finance $11trln of chips? $5trln? $2trln? The high-yield market isn’t that big. This isn’t hard math. The answer is no. CoreWeave paper at 15% and $4.5trln in 2030. Both can’t be true.”

Lone Star IV: “This isn’t ‘07,” said Lone Star. “2007 had super-leveraged entities built on fraud.” Google isn’t levered. Facebook isn’t CoreWeave. “The leveraged stuff goes to zero, the hyper-scalers don’t, they own real things. But divide some of these equities by two and you’re closer to the truth than today’s screen.” This is not sock puppets. “This is chip stocks down 30-50%, the index down 8%,” he said. “Sell your chip winners and buy healthcare. That’s not a crash, it’s the last 3yrs in reverse. Rates react first. Credit second. Equity a distant tenth.”

Lone Star V: “Multi-strats were down 1.9% on Thursday, according to Goldman,” said Lone Star. “Biggest loss in hedge fund land since the tariffs. Everybody’s in the same trade; max long chips, short software against it. When it turns, one pod gets smoked, unwinds, and that blows up the next one.” That’s how cascading stops work. “Unless you’re over forty-two, you’d never seen a 10yr note yield above 5% until this year. Go back to the beginning of interest-rate time. The average yield has been 5%. 7.5% mortgages were normal. The last 20yrs was the aberration.”

Lone Star VI: “France is in a world of hurt on its budget,” said Lone Star. “We bought protection on European bank sub-CDS in the high eighties. Took a third off at 120, a third at 130, left the rest on in case it runs.” It’s not a bank problem; it’s a macro problem. “People are looking through and asking, how does this math work?” Everyone has issues, and nobody pays attention until the money stops. “Which is exactly where chips are headed. You can’t buy them if you can’t finance them. But until the day you actually can’t pay the bill, equities rarely care.”

Anecdote: “Eisenhower recognized the immense economic and strategic value in securing the safe and free passage of ships across the oceans,” said The Chairman, often a clear-eyed optimist.  “We projected American hard power through our Navy and the bases across the globe that supported it.” Much has changed since 1953. Texas Instruments developed the world’s first integrated circuit in 1957. American frontier labs are on the cusp of developing recursively self-improving superintelligence. “Over the decades, global networks have been developed as the foundation for most of our activities. There is the global energy network, the communications networks. A financial network, capital markets, cross-border payments. Global maritime trade, supply chains, rare earths, food.” Technology is now the connective tissue of every network. “Throughout history, the people, companies and nations who have controlled the networks derive outsized value from them, but everyone benefits,” said The Chairman. “The US is at the center of many of these modern networks - communications, capital, energy, etc. - and as you stack them, the value and power of that leading position compounds.” Indeed. “When you look at the present-day world through this lens, the US, with four percent of the world population, has never been in a position of such power and the "network effects" for all people have never been greater. And it’s through these channels that we and others will increasingly seek to project power and influence,” he said. “There will be nations who conclude that they will try to build ways to circumvent and unfairly exploit these networks, and I say good luck to them. Go try.  The price of that behavior should be to exclude them from the networks.  I think what they’ll eventually conclude is that the advantages of well-functioning, efficient, and fair networks are overwhelming.” SI advances are likely to make this even more so. “That doesn’t mean hard military power will no longer be necessary, of course it will be, always. But a future where we bring the vast majority of the world onto these networks, and where we and our allies exercise our overwhelming power with prudence, will be a more peaceful and prosperous world.”

Good luck out there,

Eric Peters

Chief Investment Officer

One River Asset Management

Week-in-Review: Mon: China GDP 4.5% (4.4%e). Tradeweb to buy trading platform Trumid for $1.97B. US moves to bar China’s DeepSeek from federal agency systems. China’s CB signaled its overnight reverse repurchase rate will replace the current seven-day rate as the new policy benchmark, a step that aligns it closer with global peers and has the potential to push down borrowing costs. S&P +0.4%. Tue: US housing starts 1221k (1305k e). Ken Griffin says AI “almost certainly” in a bubble right now. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he doesn’t anticipate a spillover from the French bond market. S&P +0.3%. Wed: SpaceX, Tesla set up special committees to study possible $3.5T merger, with a push to announce a deal by the first half of 2027 such that it closes during the current administration. Putin says Russia willing to resume peace talks with US, Ukraine in mid-November. Meta touts AI progress in earnings, raises capex outlook, and unveils new non-voting share class. S&P +0.6%. Thu: US init jobless claims 194k (200k e). Meta falls after boosting spending plans for AI bet. Oil advanced after attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns that escalating Middle East hostilities could hit supply. US Treasuries rallied, with 10-year yields falling below 5% for the first time in a month, as AI jitters, market turmoil in France, and fresh Mideast tensions sparked a rush to safety. S&P -1.2%. Fri: US UMich sent 48.0 (46.3e). AI debt fears push global credit spreads to 17-month high. France avoids Moody’s downgrade in reprieve after week of crisis. Brent surges to 6-month high on escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. US moving some diplomats out of Middle East posts. S&P -0.5%.

Weekly Close: S&P 500 -0.5% and VIX -0.54 at +19.45. Nikkei -4.0%, Shanghai -0.7%, Euro Stoxx -1.4%, Bovespa -0.2%, MSCI World -0.3%, MSCI Emerging -2.8%, Bitcoin -0.1%, and Ethereum -0.5%. USD rose +1.0% vs Chile, +0.9% vs Mexico, +0.7% vs South Africa, +0.4% vs Turkey, +0.3% vs Euro, +0.2% vs Indonesia, and +0.1% vs Sweden. USD fell -3.3% vs Russia, -1.7% vs Brazil, -1.3% vs Australia, -0.9% vs Canada, -0.7% vs Yen, -0.4% vs Sterling, -0.2% vs China, and flat vs India. Gold -4.2%, Silver -5.9%, Oil (WTI) +4.2%, Oil (Brent) +6.2%, NatGas (US) -15.8%, NatGas (EU) +6.6%, Power (EU) -5.6%, Copper -1.2%, Iron Ore -1.5%, Corn -3.8%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU -2bps at 2.21%, US flat at 2.35%, JP -15bps at 2.06%, and UK +1bp at 3.44%). 2yr Notes -2bps at 4.68% and 10yr Notes -8bps at 5.00%.

YTD Equity Index Returns: Taiwan +53.4% priced in US dollars (+59% priced in Taiwan dollars), Colombia +47.1% priced in US dollars (+22.8% priced in pesos), Korea +43.1% priced in dollars (+31.7% in won), Brazil +38.7% in dollars (+27.3% in reais), Norway +36.4% (+26.3%), Hungary +28.8% (+27.9%), Japan +24.1% (+24.5%), Poland +22.6% (+34.2%), Singapore +17.4% (+16.7%), Thailand +15.5% (+24.1%), Greece +13.8% (+19.3%), Netherlands +13.5% (+19%), Israel +13.1% (+10.1%), Austria +12.1% (+17.7%), Russell 2000 +11.8%, NASDAQ +11.7%, Portugal +11.5% (+16.9%), S&P 500 +11.4%, Canada +10.6% (+12.9%), MSCI World +10.5% priced in dollars, Belgium +8.6% (+13.9%), UK +7% (+7.6%), Australia +6.4% (+0.9%), Mexico +4.8% (+8.7%), Spain +4.6% (+9.7%), Switzerland +4.5% (+9%), Italy +2.9% (+8%), Sweden +1.9% (+10.2%), Ireland +1.5% (+6.4%), Vietnam +1.1% (-0.6%), New Zealand +0.4% (+1.4%), Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% (+4.8%), Finland -0.4% (+4.6%), Germany -2.1% (+2.8%), China -2.6% (-7%), UAE -4% (-4%), Malaysia -4.8% (-4.1%), Chile -7.3% (+2.4%), Denmark -7.5% (-2.8%), South Africa -7.6% (-7.4%), Saudi Arabia -7.7% (-7.6%), Czech Republic -8.9% (-3.8%), France -8.9% (-4.5%), Argentina -10.5% (-6.6%), HK -10.6% (-9.9%), Philippines -12.4% (-5.4%), Turkey -14.7% (-1.3%), India -18% (-13.5%), Indonesia -41.9% (-37.1%).

Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.

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