Another quiet week on this little planet. Dusted off an anecdote about the conflict between the US and Iran, from back in 2019, during Trump’s first term (see below).
Happy Father’s Day. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the very best, Eric
Week-in-Review: Mon: Trump sends National Guard into LA without Newsome’s permission. China/US trade talks reportedly going well. Trump eyes easing US chip export restrictions to secure Chinese rare earths. Japanese hotel group to buy $5bln of bitcoin. S&P flat. Tue: US/China agree to framework to restore trade truce. Bolsonaro takes stand over alleged coup plot. UK unemployment hits 4yr high. Russia launches mass missile and drone attack on Kyiv for 3rd night. Bitcoin hits 110k. S&P +0.6%. Wed: Trump says US military families can leave parts of Middle East. US CPI soft (+0.1% m/m). Chinese carmaker Xpeng develops advanced chips for VW. Pentagon launches review of Aukus nuclear submarine deal. S&P -0.3%. Thu: US PPI -0.5% m/m (core -0.4% m/m). Argentina monthly CPI below 2% for first time since 2020. Key parts of US-UK trade deal expected to be enacted in days. UK monthly GDP falls -0.3%. S&P +0.4%. Fri: Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities (kills senior Revolutionary Guard leaders & scientists). Netanyahu vows to attack Iran for as long as necessary. UMich consumer sentiment rises to 60.5. Inflation expectations fall from 6.6% to 5.1%. Oil jumps 7% (down from +13% at the highs). Trump approves Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel. S&P -1.1%. Sat: Trump leads military parade in DC (celebrates his birthday). Israel warns ‘Tehran will burn” as Bibi hints at regime change. Minnesota state lawmaker murdered in political killing.
Weekly Close: S&P 500 -0.4% and VIX +4.05 at +20.82. Nikkei +0.2%, Shanghai -0.2%, Euro Stoxx -1.6%, Bovespa +0.8%, MSCI World +0.8%, MSCI Emerging +1.7%, Bitcoin +0.01%, and Ethereum +0.7%. USD rose +1.3% vs Russia, +0.9% vs South Africa, +0.6% vs Chile, +0.5% vs India, +0.5% vs Turkey, +0.1% vs Indonesia, and flat vs Australia. USD fell -1.6% vs Sweden, -1.3% vs Euro, -0.8% vs Mexico, -0.8% vs Canada, -0.5% vs Yen, -0.3% vs Sterling, -0.3% vs Brazil, and -0.1% vs China. Gold +3.2%, Silver +0.6%, Oil +13.0%, Copper -0.7%, Iron Ore +0.0%, Corn -1.4%. 10yr Inflation Breakevens (EU +4bps at 1.75%, US -3bps at 2.29%, JP -5bps at 1.48%, and UK flat at 3.16%). 2yr Notes -9bps at 3.95% and 10yr Notes -11bps at 4.40%.
2025 Year-to-Date Equity Index Returns: Greece +39.4% priced in US dollars (+24.9% priced in euros), Poland +38.9% priced in dollars (+24.9% in zloty), Czech Republic +37.5% in dollars (+22% in koruna), Hungary +36.4% (+20.2%), Spain +34% (+20%), Norway +33.9% (+16.4%), Austria +32.2% (+18.9%), Germany +31.3% (+18.1%), Ireland +31.1% (+17.4%), Korea +30.4% (+20.6%), Portugal +30.3% (+16.7%), Chile +29.8% (+22.4%), Italy +28.3% (+15.4%), Mexico +28.1% (+16%), Colombia +27.4% (+19.5%), Brazil +27.1% (+14.1%), South Africa +23.1% (+16.5%), Finland +22.4% (+10.1%), Euro Stoxx 50 +20.6% (+8.1%), HK +17.9% (+19.1%), UK +17.6% (+8.3%), Netherlands +17.2% (+5%), Belgium +17.2% (+5%), Switzerland +16.8% (+4.7%), France +16.3% (+4.1%), Sweden +15.2% (-0.9%), Israel +14.1% (+11.5%), Canada +13.5% (+7.2%), Australia +10.3% (+4.8%), Singapore +10.2% (+3.3%), MSCI World +6.4% in dollars, Taiwan +6.3% (-4.2%), India +3.9% (+4.5%), Japan +3.5% (-5.2%), New Zealand +3.4% (-4.3%), China +2.4% (+0.8%), Denmark +2.2% (-8%), S&P 500 +1.6%, UAE +1.6% (+1.5%), Vietnam +1.5% (+3.8%), Philippines +1% (-2%), Indonesia +0.7% (+1.2%), NASDAQ +0.5%, Malaysia -2.6% (-7.6%), Russell -5.8%, Saudi Arabia -9.8% (-9.9%), Turkey -14.9% (-5.3%), Thailand -15.4% (-19.8%), Argentina -26.8% (-16%).
Anecdote (July 2019): “War is the continuation of politics by other means,” said the Commander, quoting Carl von Clausewitz. We were discussing geopolitics. “Negotiations that precede every conflict continue throughout every war,” he said. “We’re seeing that play out in real time right now, but in highly charged domestic political environment.” America’s military is non-partisan, faithfully defending the Constitution, obeying Presidents. “I don’t think he’ll get us into a war, he’s just leveraging all the strengths and power he can, which is the President’s role,” said the Commander. “He’s doing it more effectively than any President I’ve seen,” he added. “Trump comes at things from a different, entrepreneurial perspective. That’s healthy. He’s pretty sharp, with a good read on people, he relies on instinct.” Trump is the first President to meet North Korea’s leader. “People mocked those meetings. But no missiles are flying. That’s a win. Any time missiles fly, there’s potential for miscalculation, accidents, then you’re in a bad place. Trump lowered that risk,” he explained. “I was very surprised we didn’t strike Iran. That’s what I like about Trump’s style. We were ready to attack. And the fact we almost did, means it was mission-accomplished without the destruction. You want Tehran always wondering what’ll happen, when it’ll happen. That was really out-of-the-box thinking on his part,” he said. “An attack would’ve been talked about for a few days, then faded away. Instead, he sent a message: ‘Hey, I consider this very serious. I just held back from wiping you guys out. Next time I will.’ And Trump sent that message without firing anything,” said the Commander. “I’ve been pleasantly surprised by his resistance to action. Everyone should be happy. The military doesn’t want to go on the offensive, because we’re the ones who get killed. The last thing anyone wants is to put our kids in harm’s way.”
Eric Peters
Chief Investment Officer
One River Asset Management
Disclaimer: All characters and events contained herein are entirely fictional. Even those things that appear based on real people and actual events are products of the author’s imagination. Any similarity is merely coincidental. The numbers are unreliable. The statistics too. Consequently, this message does not contain any investment recommendation, advice, or solicitation of any sort for any product, fund or service. The views expressed are strictly those of the author, even if often times they are not actually views held by the author, or directly contradict those views genuinely held by the author. And the views may certainly differ from those of any firm or person that the author may advise, converse with, or otherwise be associated with. Lastly, any inappropriate language, innuendo or dark humor contained herein is not specifically intended to offend the reader. And besides, nothing could possibly be more offensive than the real-life actions of the inept policy makers, corrupt elected leaders and short, paranoid dictators who infest our little planet. Yet we suffer their indignities every day. Oh yeah, past performance is not indicative of future returns.